In recent weeks (May and June 2026), Turkey has faced one of the most unprecedented judicial interventions in its modern history and now stands on the brink of a complete collapse of its political order. After years of the gradual erosion of civil institutions, the boundaries between the rule of law and the will of the executive branch have now been entirely erased. The Justice and Development Party (AKP), led by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, having brought large parts of the judiciary and state bureaucracy under its control, no longer views ballot boxes as the sole source of legitimacy. Instead, through the use of politically engineered judicial rulings, it is effectively engaged in the physical and organizational elimination of the last elected alternatives from the country’s political scene.
The recent decision by a court in Ankara to annul the results of the internal elections of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the country’s largest opposition party, marks a turning point in this crisis. According to this controversial ruling, Özgür Özel, the lawful and elected leader of the party, was removed from his position and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the party’s former chairman, was reinstated.
This overt intervention sent shockwaves through Turkey’s political society. The principal aim of this imposed and engineered leadership change is nothing other than the structural weakening of the opposition and the creation of internal fragmentation within it. This aggressive campaign accelerated especially after the 2024 municipal elections, in which the Republican People’s Party achieved a historic victory and emerged, for the first time in decades, as the most powerful political force in the country.
The most prominent target of this strategy of political marginalization has been Ekrem İmamoğlu, the mayor of Istanbul and the most serious potential presidential challenger. The arrest of İmamoğlu along with more than 100 prominent opposition figures demonstrates that the government, rather than competing through the ballot box, has resorted to weaponizing the law.
This deep political crisis is unfolding against a backdrop of economic devastation. Turkey today is grappling with runaway inflation and the continuous collapse of the national currency, the lira, a cost-of-living crisis that has made access to basic necessities difficult and, in some cases, impossible for broad sections of the population.
Turkish society is increasingly sinking into social frustration, hopelessness regarding the future, and a severe decline in trust toward public institutions. Under such conditions, political repression is not a sign of strength but rather a reflection of the ruling establishment’s fear of the potential for public anger. The recent court ruling acted like gasoline poured onto the flames of protest. The widespread demonstrations that had emerged since 2025 following the arrest of İmamoğlu have intensified once again in recent days. The assault by security forces on the headquarters of the main opposition party in order to disperse demonstrators, as well as violent street clashes, reveal the extreme polarization and volatility of society, a situation that could escalate into a full-scale social explosion if both sides continue to insist upon their current positions.
An inseparable part of this political deadlock is the fate of the “peace process with the PKK.” In this area as well, all doors to any peaceful resolution of the Kurdish issue have been completely closed. Erdoğan himself bears primary responsibility for this impasse. Through a deceptive approach, he advanced the “peace process” only to the point where he could extract the greatest possible political and security advantages for consolidating his domestic position. But now that the time has come to grant fundamental civil and political rights, he is unwilling to pay even the smallest political cost. This dishonesty and breach of commitments regarding the Kurdish issue is fully aligned with and complementary to the same policy now being implemented against legal opposition parties in Ankara and Istanbul: silencing every voice that seeks to redefine the distribution of power in Turkey.
Yet Turkey, because of its unique strategic, geopolitical, and military position, is not a country whose instability can remain confined within its borders. The current crisis of democracy is no longer merely a domestic legal challenge; it is rapidly becoming a regional and international security crisis.
Western governments, due to their pressing need for Turkey’s military weight within NATO, its role in controlling the refugee crisis, and its distinctive geopolitical position, have consistently preferred to close their eyes to internal repression, the imprisonment of opponents, and the judicial engineering of political parties. This opportunistic silence sent Erdoğan the message that as long as he fulfilled his role within the West’s security chessboard, he would have free rein to carry out any form of domestic repression. Now, this model of authoritarianism “which grew under the shelter of international support and indirect tolerance” has itself become an exportable model for other regimes inclined toward authoritarian rule.
Turkey today stands at a point of no return. The opposition’s insistence on rejecting what it describes as a “judicial coup,” combined with the ruling core’s determination to completely eliminate its rivals, has created an intensely polarized, volatile, and unpredictable atmosphere. Without doubt, the coming days will witness escalating street tensions, deeper confrontations between civil and security institutions, and further deterioration in the living conditions of ordinary people. What is unfolding in Turkey today goes beyond the fate of a single party or mayor; it is a struggle that, with the increasing involvement of the working class and deeply rooted left-wing movements in the country, may ultimately determine not only Erdoğan’s future but the entire political future of Turkey itself.
